Bitcoin’s negative price action this year is no secret. According to popular technical analyst Tone Vays, bitcoin’s price does not look good going forward – at least for a while.
Tone Vays Analysis
Looking at the monthly Bitcoin chart, (where each candle portrays one month of price action) Vays speculated on price, with the comparison to bitcoin’s last bear market end back in 2015.
As seen on the chart image above, last month’s red candle did not end with a long bottom wick, breaching a satisfactory level to the downside, as was seen in 2015’s candle.
Tone Vays noted that price last month did not breach the fifty-month moving average (50 MA). “It makes me believe that this big down candle [upper right black circle in image] is not, and I repeat, not the equivalent of this big down candle [lower left black circle in image],” Vays said.
Vays observation and analysis here is an indication that bitcoin has possibly not yet found an ultimate price bottom or reversal.
Referencing this month’s red candle, Vays mentioned that buying pressure did not follow last month’s big red candle, indicating further downward momentum ahead instead of a price reversal.
Vays then went into several interesting scenarios going forward for bitcoin. In his most optimal scenario, he stated, “this is going to sound very very ugly right now.”
His optimal scenario includes a few more months of price consolidation in the $3,000 price range. This would involve price staying slightly above the fifty-month moving average until March of next year, ending the month in the $3,150 range.
“And then in April, have a gigantic drop down to approximately below $1,500, in early April. But by end of April, be back above the fifty-month moving average, creating this giant hammer candle.”
(A hammer candle is a candlestick with a small body and very large bottom wick. This type of candle can indicate capitulation, market bottoms, and buying pressure, depending on where the candle occurs in any given chart.)
This could be a more positive situation than if prices were to linger under the fifty-month moving average for a prolonged time period. After April in his mentioned scenario, Vays sees bitcoin returning to the $5,000 price range and higher by the end of 2019, with the possibility of breaking all-time highs in 2020.
Vays also detailed other chart time frames, such as weekly and daily bitcoin charts, explaining those time frames to look very bearish as well.
Notably, Vays has provided some accurate analysis in the past.
My probabilities of $BTCUSD price outlook:
25% – Fall to ~$1.3k High of Dec 2013
23% – Bounce of $4,975 High of Aug 2017
12% – Bounce of ~$3K
20% – Bounce off another area Under $6k
11% – $6k Was Bottom -> $20k+ Next Yr
9% – $6k Was Bottom -> $20k+ This Yr
Plan: #HODL #Bitcoin! pic.twitter.com/dH3JC4P3fz
— Tone Vays [@Bitcoin] (@ToneVays) May 8, 2018
Tone Vays also won a $10,000 bet against ex-pro poker player turned crypto influencer Doug Polk earlier this year.
— Doug Polk (@DougPolkPoker) May 7, 2018
It is important to note that nothing is ever certain. Technical analysis can be a great way to analyze price action and make possible projections for the future. However, no one knows what will happen for certain until it happens.
*Nothing written or said is financial advice in any way. Writing about price levels is purely speculation, subject to speculatory bias. Nothing written is any kind of advice whatsoever. Proceed only at your own risk.
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